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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 18 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 16 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 15 games
80%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Fbz · 13 games
77%

Team SMG

Bane
Bane
ninjaboogie · 19 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 7 games
29%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 635 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 433 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
446 picks · 268 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 635 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 474 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 552 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
330 picks · 653 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength64% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total54% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
BOOM Esports 54%Team SMG 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Game 2prediction missed10:29
BOOM Esports 54%Team SMG 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorJaCkky
52% · 106 games49% · 53 games
Troll WarlordMidOne
Troll Warlord
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
43% · 94 games50% · 128 games
BatriderMoon
Batrider
Tiny
TinyYopaj
57% · 119 games50% · 236 games
Iopieliedie
Io
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTims
43% · 157 games57% · 129 games
Treant ProtectorAhFu
Treant Protector
Abaddon
AbaddonSkem
45% · 70 games
Game 3prediction correct29:27
BOOM Esports 54%Team SMG 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautJaCkky
52% · 36 games54% · 254 games
Monkey KingMidOne
Monkey King
Mars
MarsFbz
48% · 436 games49% · 226 games
Void SpiritMoon
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
55% · 198 games48% · 152 games
Enchantresspieliedie
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSkem
49% · 175 games49% · 249 games
KunkkaAhFu
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaTims
46% · 36 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 54%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3