Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Bane
Jubei · 6 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Rises · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Team DogChamp
Banesignature
Bloody Nine · 14 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 10 games
Tiny
Ryoya · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
460 picks · 633 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 433 bans
Bane
441 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 632 bans
Dragon Knight
390 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 549 bans
Keeper of the Light
329 picks · 649 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:27
Eternity 43%Team DogChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Eternity in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Shamanrayy
BloodseekerStoneBank
DoomMoonlight
Marslukiluki
43% · 30 games
Winter Wyvernyarintheslayer
57% · 84 games
BaneBloody Nine
Game 2prediction missed58:20
Eternity 41%Team DogChamp 59%
The model gave 59% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Eternity in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMoonlight
UrsaStoneBank
Jakirorayy
Dragon Knightlukiluki
little data
Zeusyarintheslayer
61% · 77 games
BaneBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 66%
Series resultEternity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2