European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5loss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Astini+5
Tusk
Daze · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
Bristleback
DM · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Phoenix
DM · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 19 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
Sand King
mellojul · 16 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Ursasignature
7jesu · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
613 picks · 814 bans
Tiny
545 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
441 picks · 398 bans
Warlock
439 picks · 296 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1038 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 675 bans
Mars
374 picks · 597 bans
Shadow Fiend
357 picks · 940 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Astini+5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:24
Astini+5 53%Team Lynx 47%
The model gave 53% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTA2000
Gyrocopter7jesu
BristlebackDM
Void Spiritmellojul
Sand King4nalog
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
ChenSoNNeikO
Tuskkreker
TinyDaze
Shadow DemonQBFY
Game 2prediction missed14:31
Astini+5 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaTA2000
Templar Assassin7jesu
Slardar4nalog
Sand Kingmellojul
Centaur WarrunnerDM
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
TinyDaze
Shadow DemonQBFY
JakiroSoNNeikO
Pugnakreker
Game 3prediction missed21:28
Astini+5 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainTA2000
Weaver7jesu
Void Spirit4nalog
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
MarsDM
Puckmellojul
TuskDaze
Phoenixkreker
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
TinyQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteAstini+5 · 59%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3