Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 5 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Husky · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
ZfreeK · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Costabile · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
460 picks · 632 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 433 bans
Bane
441 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 630 bans
Dragon Knight
389 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 548 bans
Keeper of the Light
329 picks · 647 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:18
Evil Geniuses 52%nouns 48%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by nouns in 55:45.
Game 2prediction missed32:8
Evil Geniuses 52%nouns 48%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by nouns in 31:40.
Game 3prediction missed
Evil Geniuses 52%nouns 48%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by nouns.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 52%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3