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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 16 games
44%
Bane
Bane
zzq · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 12 games
42%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
7e · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 8 games
38%

LGD Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 15 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
458 picks · 630 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 431 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 268 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 624 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
387 picks · 469 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 547 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
328 picks · 643 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total61% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:0
EHOME 42%LGD Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 53:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
42% · 148 games56% · 65 games
Treant ProtectorXinQ
Treant Protector
Pangolier
PangolierEcho
48% · 347 games44% · 159 games
TinyNothingToSay
Tiny
Visage
Visagezeal
62% · 35 games57% · 104 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerpLAnet
51% · 52 games46% · 92 games
RazorFaith_bian
Razor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
49% · 18 games54% · 180 games
Baney`
Bane
Game 2prediction missed26:21
EHOME 42%LGD Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautshiro
52% · 60 games39% · 82 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Visage
Visagezeal
58% · 19 games50% · 75 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierEcho
52% · 201 game44% · 212 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingpLAnet
49% · 148 games53% · 101 game
PhoenixXinQ
Phoenix
Windranger
Windrangerzzq
62% · 46 games50% · 4 games
Crystal Maideny`
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed39:27
EHOME 43%LGD Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
Visageshiro
55% · 49 games45% · 70 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckEcho
55% · 234 games49% · 172 games
Death ProphetNothingToSay
Death Prophet
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
54% · 155 games44% · 344 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Tiny
TinypLAnet
49% · 220 games51% · 104 games
Treant ProtectorXinQ
Treant Protector
Pugna
Pugnazzq
56% · 104 games43% · 72 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 61%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3