?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 28 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 24 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 23 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
80%

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 6 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RedPanda · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
RedPanda · 5 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
生死 · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
458 picks · 630 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 268 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 431 bans
49%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 623 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 469 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 545 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
328 picks · 641 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Team Aster 54%Aster.Aries 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMonet
45% · 116 games56% · 114 games
RazorXwy
Razor
Lina
LinaOri
52% · 176 games51% · 129 games
KunkkaUlu
Kunkka
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
52% · 47 games48% · 27 games
Dawnbreaker生死
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaBoBoKa
46% · 27 games50% · 114 games
IoTK
Io
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
47% · 94 games51% · 76 games
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct34:18
Team Aster 51%Aster.Aries 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMonet
56% · 58 games53% · 162 games
Queen of PainUlu
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckOri
47% · 241 game45% · 156 games
Dragon KnightXwy
Dragon Knight
Visage
VisageXxs
47% · 25 games48% · 75 games
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
45% · 184 games63% · 39 games
BrewmasterTK
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFantasy
54% · 14 games52% · 90 games
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2