Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
458 picks · 627 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 431 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 622 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 545 bans
Keeper of the Light
328 picks · 638 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:48
simply TOOBASED 33%KBU.US 67%
The model gave 67% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 52:19.
Game 2prediction correct
simply TOOBASED 33%KBU.US 67%
The model gave 67% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 67%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2