Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 16 games
Viperoften banned
SkyLark · 16 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
W1sh- · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
EU Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
458 picks · 628 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 434 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 623 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 468 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 547 bans
Keeper of the Light
328 picks · 638 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:28
Brame 59%EU Rejects 41%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageFocus
JuggernautShad
ViperSkyLark
Storm SpiritAdzantick
InvokerThuG
MagnusChessie
Earth SpiritdEsire
Pugnaj4
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
Windranger5up
Game 2prediction correct40:11
Brame 58%EU Rejects 42%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireThuG
RazorShad
BloodseekerFocus
PangolierAdzantick
LycanSkyLark
VisageChessie
Monkey KingdEsire
Earthshaker5up
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Pugnaj4
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 67%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2