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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 22 games
32%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 21 game
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
28%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 13 games
38%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
18%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
36%

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
460 picks · 629 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 438 bans
49%
Sand King
Sand King
412 picks · 562 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 621 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 467 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 552 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 150 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% X3
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
Team Empire 48%X3 52%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerxannii
45% · 125 games46% · 141 game
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
43% · 178 games54% · 191 game
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaShachlo
62% · 32 games53% · 52 games
BrewmasterShergarat
Brewmaster
Windranger
Windranger633
52% · 78 games51% · 184 games
Weavervelheor
Weaver
Tiny
TinyjAMES
51% · 222 games53% · 67 games
Treant ProtectorsmN
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed38:15
Team Empire 48%X3 52%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by Team Empire in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyxannii
50% · 223 games50% · 141 game
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
55% · 92 games42% · 180 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Visage
VisageShachlo
54% · 32 games46% · 55 games
UnderlordShergarat
Underlord
Clockwerk
ClockwerkjAMES
53% · 103 games47% · 145 games
Shadow Demonvelheor
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
Abaddon633
53% · 157 games53% · 86 games
Treant ProtectorsmN
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct42:19
Team Empire 52%X3 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
VisageShachlo
57% · 44 games51% · 133 games
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Puck
PuckSquad1x
52% · 132 games48% · 60 games
ViperShergarat
Viper
Spectre
Spectrexannii
51% · 33 games46% · 126 games
TinyNattyNarwhal
Tiny
Phoenix
Phoenix633
57% · 111 games50% · 19 games
Enigmavelheor
Enigma
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorjAMES
47% · 85 games43% · 67 games
PugnasmN
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 53%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3