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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Summit Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
63%

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
TrazaM · 3 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nj · 3 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Unknown- · 2 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mercury · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
czy · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Unknown- · 1 game
100%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 631 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
442 picks · 268 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 442 bans
49%
Sand King
Sand King
416 picks · 563 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 621 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
384 picks · 467 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 555 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 150 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Summit Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:24
TNC Predator 52%Summit Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 45:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYowe
48% · 67 games59% · 86 games
MedusaUnknown-
Medusa
Enigma
EnigmaBok
58% · 40 games37% · 58 games
LeshracMercury
Leshrac
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
53% · 315 games49% · 176 games
MarsNj
Mars
49% · 69 games
Lionczy
Lion
39% · 33 games
Winter WyvernTrazaM
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct15:32
TNC Predator 49%Summit Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYowe
44% · 123 games60% · 108 games
MedusaUnknown-
Medusa
Tusk
TuskBok
50% · 83 games44% · 74 games
LeshracMercury
Leshrac
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
50% · 308 games50% · 209 games
MarsNj
Mars
54% · 81 game
Rubickczy
Rubick
51% · 42 games
UndyingTrazaM
Undying
Game 3prediction missed21:24
TNC Predator 52%Summit Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYowe
52% · 213 games53% · 32 games
JuggernautUnknown-
Juggernaut
Underlord
UnderlordBok
53% · 72 games47% · 140 games
Ember SpiritMercury
Ember Spirit
Pugna
Pugnacml
54% · 163 games50% · 109 games
Dragon KnightNj
Dragon Knight
46% · 104 games
Grimstrokeczy
Grimstroke
40% · 63 games
ClockwerkTrazaM
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 51%
Series resultSummit Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3