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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 46 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 42 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 41 game
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 33 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 33 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 29 games
41%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 9 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
22%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 817 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 564 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
441 picks · 396 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
434 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 673 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 597 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
353 picks · 936 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Pipsqueak+4 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzLowskill
53% · 148 games60% · 141 game
Lifestealerselfhate
Lifestealer
Sand King
Sand Kingряф^^
50% · 261 game44% · 418 games
Beastmasteryoung G
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
52% · 520 games47% · 212 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Warlock
WarlockEkki
47% · 612 games52% · 416 games
Shadow Demonariel
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkaik
52% · 374 games44% · 728 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct36:26
Pipsqueak+4 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLowskill
53% · 246 games55% · 330 games
Shadow Fiendselfhate
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painряф^^
44% · 288 games54% · 149 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
51% · 324 games45% · 286 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
49% · 493 games54% · 387 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoraik
53% · 91 game42% · 290 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 70%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2