Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 35 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 31 game
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 27 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
layme · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 22 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 29 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
Bane
Muka · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 21 game
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 646 bans
Bane
443 picks · 276 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 465 bans
Sand King
419 picks · 572 bans
Storm Spirit
392 picks · 628 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 560 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 587 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:15
No Sorry 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by No Sorry in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKami
PuckAskold
MarsLastHero-
Grimstrokekickeed
Storm SpiritWorick
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Skywrath Magey0nd
Game 2prediction correct31:9
No Sorry 50%Hydra 50%
The model gave 50% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
WindrangerAskold
Storm SpiritWorick
Tinykickeed
UnderlordLastHero-
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Ioy0nd
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 53%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2