Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 29 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
Bane
Muka · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 34 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 26 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 25 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
465 picks · 654 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 474 bans
Bane
448 picks · 279 bans
Sand King
423 picks · 576 bans
Storm Spirit
392 picks · 633 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 462 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 594 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:21
Hydra 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Hydra in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAskold
Storm Spiritmellojul
Grimstrokekickeed
ViperAfterLife
55% · 57 games
Chaos KnightSmiling Knight
53% · 55 games
PhoenixPanto
56% · 79 games
Rubicksayuw
Game 2prediction missed42:27
Hydra 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Hydra in 54:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritAskold
Storm Spiritmellojul
Abaddonkickeed
SpectreSmiling Knight
53% · 86 games
Sand KingAfterLife
52% · 108 games
Miranasayuw
51% · 39 games
WindrangerPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2