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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
43%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 15 games
53%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 13 games
85%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 12 games
25%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 39 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 38 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 37 games
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 33 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 33 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 817 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 563 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 396 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1035 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 672 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 597 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
353 picks · 933 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
VP.Prodigy 32%Zero Tenacity 68%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
53% · 448 games47% · 244 games
MuertaKami
Muerta
Kez
Kezcutie
47% · 139 games56% · 156 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSerenada
48% · 175 games54% · 292 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Tiny
Tinyraregods
48% · 498 games49% · 753 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockJANTER
44% · 516 games53% · 331 game
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed40:28
VP.Prodigy 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSerenada
46% · 516 games52% · 250 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Ursa
Ursacutie
48% · 341 game57% · 258 games
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Razor
Razortakizawa
44% · 177 games56% · 339 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
45% · 116 games57% · 333 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
46% · 490 games48% · 460 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed29:44
VP.Prodigy 34%Zero Tenacity 66%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 53:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertacutie
48% · 270 games54% · 126 games
KezKami
Kez
Doom
Doomtakizawa
51% · 165 games54% · 423 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Huskar
HuskarSerenada
57% · 104 games49% · 396 games
WindrangerWorick
Windranger
Tiny
Tinyraregods
48% · 518 games45% · 244 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
51% · 696 games45% · 564 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 78%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3