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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Brameloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 12 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 12 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 10 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
DM · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
78%

Brame

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
75%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
73%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
46%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
W1sh- · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 653 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
458 picks · 475 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 278 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
424 picks · 579 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 633 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 458 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 565 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 597 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
Virtus.pro 49%Brame 51%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRAMZES666
47% · 105 games55% · 213 games
Monkey KingFocus
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaDM
52% · 25 games53% · 198 games
PuckThuG
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
50% · 211 games57% · 46 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
48% · 113 games52% · 113 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfireXakoda
41% · 227 games50% · 111 games
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed46:15
Virtus.pro 46%Brame 54%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerRAMZES666
52% · 44 games53% · 101 game
LifestealerFocus
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
55% · 165 games49% · 162 games
RazorATF
Razor
Viper
ViperDM
48% · 82 games57% · 73 games
WindrangerThuG
Windranger
Snapfire
SnapfireXakoda
40% · 212 games49% · 228 games
Monkey KingdEsire
Monkey King
Tiny
Tinyyamich
55% · 180 games44% · 119 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct25:7
Virtus.pro 51%Brame 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 21:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
45% · 54 games44% · 27 games
BristlebackFocus
Bristleback
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightgpK~
50% · 152 games49% · 294 games
MarsThuG
Mars
Lycan
LycanDM
58% · 76 games48% · 74 games
ViperATF
Viper
Snapfire
SnapfireXakoda
47% · 240 games54% · 187 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
53% · 113 games46% · 53 games
JakiroSsaSpartan
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 52%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3