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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 654 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
458 picks · 479 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 280 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
425 picks · 579 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 456 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 634 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 564 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 597 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 31%
Hero pool strength61% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:28
HF 51%YNT 49%
The model gave 51% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 45:14.
Game 2prediction correct29:26
HF 51%YNT 49%
The model gave 51% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 41:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 51%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2