Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Bane
antoha · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 11 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 10 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
475 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 482 bans
Bane
453 picks · 280 bans
Sand King
427 picks · 582 bans
Dragon Knight
384 picks · 456 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 566 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 599 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:33
CIS Rejects 41%X3 59%
The model gave 59% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 55:08.
Game 2prediction correct10:39
CIS Rejects 41%X3 59%
The model gave 59% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 29:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 59%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2