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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DOGSENTloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 9 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
22%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%

DOGSENT

Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
islA · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Nagato · 1 game
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 1 game
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
islA · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
605 picks · 815 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 561 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
439 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1031 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 673 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 595 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 516 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:20
Nemiga Gaming 71%DOGSENT 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyoung G
54% · 149 games55% · 174 games
MarciAtoufix
Marci
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidselfhate
57% · 41 game42% · 392 games
JakiroNagato
Jakiro
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCovisnine
little data
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
50% · 188 games
Disruptor
DisruptorVaniLLl
45% · 188 games
Game 2prediction correct47:20
Nemiga Gaming 68%DOGSENT 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerselfhate
50% · 143 games54% · 489 games
WarlockNagato
Warlock
Axe
AxeCovisnine
50% · 84 games48% · 273 games
MuertaAtoufix
Muerta
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
48% · 101 game
Ringmaster
RingmasterVaniLLl
50% · 184 games
Tusk
Tuskariel
46% · 250 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 83%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2