Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Banesignature
Panto · 32 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 23 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 16 games
Hydra
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
Bane
Muka · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
480 picks · 666 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 501 bans
Bane
456 picks · 278 bans
Sand King
431 picks · 578 bans
Dragon Knight
382 picks · 448 bans
Storm Spirit
377 picks · 643 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 565 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 822 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength61% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:42
One Move 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Hydra in 50:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritmellojul
Storm SpiritAskold
Chaos KnightSmiling Knight
Hoodwinkkickeed
BeastmasterAfterLife
Snapfiresayuw
GrimstrokePanto
Game 2prediction correct27:9
One Move 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritAskold
Sand Kingmellojul
Hoodwinkkickeed
Death ProphetAfterLife
Skywrath Magesayuw
GrimstrokePanto
Game 3prediction correct18:22
One Move 49%Hydra 51%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritAskold
Ember Spiritmellojul
Hoodwinkkickeed
SlardarAfterLife
GrimstrokePanto
Dark Willowsayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 50%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3