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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 16 games
50%

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 10 games
40%
Invoker
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
479 picks · 665 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 501 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 277 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
430 picks · 577 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
381 picks · 446 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
377 picks · 643 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 564 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 822 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:26
Nemiga Gaming 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
little data50% · 207 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
48% · 143 games66% · 42 games
VisageShergarat
Visage
Mars
MarsCorrupted
49% · 369 games55% · 178 games
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Phoenix
PhoenixHellscream
43% · 80 games48% · 140 games
Clockwerkvelheor
Clockwerk
Pugna
Pugnaso bad
47% · 88 games52% · 113 games
Treant ProtectorsmN
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct28:36
Nemiga Gaming 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 57:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
44% · 244 games59% · 144 games
Templar AssassinNattyNarwhal
Templar Assassin
Slark
SlarkKiritych
52% · 27 games54% · 116 games
Chaos KnightShergarat
Chaos Knight
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCorrupted
48% · 226 games54% · 67 games
Bloodseekernesfeer
Bloodseeker
Pugna
Pugnaso bad
45% · 91 game48% · 73 games
Treant ProtectorsmN
Treant Protector
Techies
TechiesHellscream
44% · 5 games55% · 193 games
Lionvelheor
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 53%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2