Nemiga Gaming vs ARCRED — prediction DPC2S—ВЕ 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1

result vs prediction

Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0

series probability

59%41%

probability at match start · final 1:0

ARCREDloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkkaoften banned

Kiritych · 24 games

50%

Death Prophetoften banned

VANSKOR · 20 games

55%

Marsoften banned

TheChosenOne · 20 games

50%

Shadow Demonoften banned

Heaven · 18 games

56%

Banesignature

VANSKOR · 17 games

65%

Rubick

Heaven · 17 games

59%

Dark Willow

Heaven · 16 games

44%

Terrorbladeoften banned

Kiritych · 16 games

50%

ARCRED

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

477 picks · 666 bans

48%

Tiny

469 picks · 502 bans

50%

Bane

454 picks · 277 bans

57%

Sand King

430 picks · 577 bans

54%

Dragon Knight

380 picks · 444 bans

52%

Storm Spirit

376 picks · 640 bans

56%

Pangolier

362 picks · 564 bans

53%

Death Prophet

349 picks · 823 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)32% vs 64%

Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Nemiga Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct32:15

Nemiga Gaming 54%ARCRED 46%

The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:47.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo