BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Force · 18 games
Marssignature
Force · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 8 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 8 games
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
476 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
467 picks · 502 bans
Bane
453 picks · 277 bans
Sand King
428 picks · 577 bans
Dragon Knight
376 picks · 443 bans
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 638 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 561 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 819 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total55% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Polaris Esports 55%Nigma Galaxy SEA 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 25:03.
Game 2prediction missed23:37
Polaris Esports 55%Nigma Galaxy SEA 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:19.
Game 3prediction correct41:25
Polaris Esports 55%Nigma Galaxy SEA 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 53:19.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 55%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3