Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
HFwin 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTenualosaloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Tenualosa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
462 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 475 bans
Bane
447 picks · 272 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 570 bans
Dragon Knight
375 picks · 440 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 623 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 553 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 65%
Series resultHF 1:0
Series predictioncorrect