Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionFTFly To Loseloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ARCREDwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fly To Lose
No games played over 6 months.
ARCRED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
462 picks · 641 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 476 bans
Bane
448 picks · 272 bans
Sand King
419 picks · 571 bans
Dragon Knight
375 picks · 440 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 623 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 553 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Fly To Lose
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% ARCRED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 56%
Series resultARCRED 0:1
Series predictioncorrect