Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionFTFly To Loseloss 0:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ARCREDwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fly To Lose
No games played over 6 months.
ARCRED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
457 picks · 487 bans
Bane
450 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
425 picks · 574 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 621 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 552 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Fly To Lose
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% ARCRED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:22
Fly To Lose 41%ARCRED 59%
The model gave 59% on ARCRED — the game was taken by ARCRED in 36:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 59%
Series resultARCRED 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1