European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DOGSENTloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
egx · 2 games
DOGSENT
Shadow Shaman
islA · 1 game
Void Spirit
islA · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
602 picks · 814 bans
Tiny
541 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
437 picks · 397 bans
Warlock
428 picks · 296 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1027 bans
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 672 bans
Mars
371 picks · 594 bans
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
Ilbirs eSports 62%DOGSENT 38%
The model gave 62% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by DOGSENT in 20:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzrubikon155
DazzleNagato
MarsMiyaoo
Shadow ShamanAtoufix
Huskarniche
TinyPonlo
RingmasterUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Ilbirs eSports 61%DOGSENT 39%
The model gave 61% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinrubikon155
RingmasterAtoufix
Void Spiritniche
JakiroNagato
BatriderMiyaoo
WarlockUndyne_
TuskPonlo
Game 3prediction correct43:26
Ilbirs eSports 58%DOGSENT 42%
The model gave 58% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmotherrubikon155
HuskarAtoufix
Linaniche
DazzleNagato
MarsMiyaoo
Ancient ApparitionUndyne_
TuskPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 72%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3