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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 7 games
86%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 7 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
No!ob · 7 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 7 games
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 6 games
67%

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 22 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 10 games
40%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 651 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 493 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 271 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
426 picks · 575 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
369 picks · 433 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
368 picks · 618 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 547 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 809 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
PSG Quest 48%X3 52%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
42% · 143 games50% · 44 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Phoenix
PhoenixEixn
45% · 123 games61% · 60 games
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
Keeper of the Light
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritOmaR
43% · 58 games64% · 52 games
BeastmasterShergarat
Beastmaster
54% · 72 games
Doomvelheor
Doom
55% · 96 games
Winter WyvernsmN
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed39:32
PSG Quest 44%X3 56%
The model gave 56% on X3 — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 53:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
45% · 203 games54% · 72 games
Chaos Knightnesfeer
Chaos Knight
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
33% · 87 games56% · 83 games
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Invoker
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEixn
47% · 97 games64% · 30 games
UnderlordShergarat
Underlord
62% · 197 games
BanesmN
Bane
44% · 5 games
Enigmavelheor
Enigma
Game 3prediction correct19:34
PSG Quest 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsNo!ob
48% · 399 games41% · 32 games
Anti-Magenesfeer
Anti-Mage
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
44% · 101 game52% · 180 games
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
Kunkka
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorEixn
55% · 101 game54% · 22 games
VisageShergarat
Visage
50% · 85 games
Doomvelheor
Doom
57% · 282 games
BanesmN
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 55%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3