Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNTloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ALIS VENTORUS
Dragon Knightoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Alchemist
gotthejuice · 1 game
Axe
fortniteMan · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Juggernaut
gotthejuice · 1 game
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 649 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 493 bans
Bane
442 picks · 271 bans
Sand King
426 picks · 572 bans
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 431 bans
Storm Spirit
366 picks · 617 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 808 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% ALIS VENTORUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:28
ALIS VENTORUS 52%YNT 48%
The model gave 52% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 46:51.
Game 2prediction missed3:33
ALIS VENTORUS 52%YNT 48%
The model gave 52% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by YNT in 20:41.
Game 3prediction correct45:32
ALIS VENTORUS 52%YNT 48%
The model gave 52% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 53:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteALIS VENTORUS · 52%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3