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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 29 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 23 games
48%
Bane
Bane
Muka · 22 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 18 games
39%
Weaver
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 16 games
50%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 651 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
459 picks · 496 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
442 picks · 270 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
427 picks · 570 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 428 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 618 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 546 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 813 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:49
Hydra 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by HF in 1:02:14.
Game 2prediction correct20:6
Hydra 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:10.
Game 3prediction correct42:25
Hydra 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 53:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 57%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3