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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDEC Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

iG Vitality

Bane
Banesignature
QYQX · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QYQX · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Dogf1ghts · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 646 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
459 picks · 496 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 269 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
427 picks · 566 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 427 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 614 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 542 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 810 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:37
CDEC Gaming 60%iG Vitality 40%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 56:29.
Game 2prediction missed24:36
CDEC Gaming 60%iG Vitality 40%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 42:33.
Game 3prediction missed25:28
CDEC Gaming 60%iG Vitality 40%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 43:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 60%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3