Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionPPatriotsloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atlantiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Patriots
Razoroften banned
dalul · 6 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 4 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
MamangDaya · 2 games
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 496 bans
Bane
438 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
426 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 427 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 613 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 807 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Atlantis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:30
Patriots 40%Atlantis 60%
The model gave 60% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis in 32:57.
Game 2prediction correct37:37
Patriots 40%Atlantis 60%
The model gave 60% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis in 48:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 60%
Series resultAtlantis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2