Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Crocodilewin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WWWarm Wine Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crocodile
No games played over 6 months.
Warm Wine Cut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
465 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 495 bans
Bane
437 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
425 picks · 561 bans
Dragon Knight
367 picks · 423 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 610 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 536 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 804 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Crocodile 53%Warm Wine Cut 47%
The model gave 53% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 53%
Series resultCrocodile 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1