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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 47 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 44 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 38 games
45%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 35 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 34 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 30 games
47%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 18 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 16 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
599 picks · 813 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
539 picks · 555 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
433 picks · 395 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 297 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1028 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
381 picks · 669 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 591 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 519 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:25
HULIGANI 49%Team Lynx 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonssnovv1
47% · 299 games51% · 350 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
59% · 529 games53% · 330 games
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsCorrupted
49% · 451 game52% · 719 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
48% · 702 games47% · 705 games
Warlockkreker
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
52% · 394 games44% · 271 game
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed4:1
HULIGANI 50%Team Lynx 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
49% · 144 games52% · 109 games
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Keeper of the Light
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirage
50% · 124 games47% · 215 games
Templar Assassin7jesu
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
47% · 93 games58% · 53 games
Ogre Magikreker
Ogre Magi
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
46% · 170 games46% · 61 game
LionQBFY
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
70% · 25 games48% · 118 games
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
Primal Beast
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2