Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportsloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5ManMidaswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Jakirosignature
Sonic · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shoe · 2 games
Dawnbreaker
Shoe · 2 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Sonic · 2 games
Grimstroke
Shoe · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 493 bans
Bane
436 picks · 265 bans
Sand King
424 picks · 559 bans
Dragon Knight
364 picks · 422 bans
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 607 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 804 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:30
Black Ice eSports 58%5ManMidas 42%
The model gave 58% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 31:42.
Game 2prediction missed37:40
Black Ice eSports 58%5ManMidas 42%
The model gave 58% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 50:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 58%
Series result5ManMidas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2