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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALIS VENTORUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
gotthejuice · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axe
fortniteMan · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Panda · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
gotthejuice · 1 game
0%

KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI

Bane
Banesignature
smN · 18 games
78%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Corrupted · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hellscream · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 9 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 9 games
89%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Hellscream · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Hellscream · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 640 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 493 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
437 picks · 265 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
423 picks · 559 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 422 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 605 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 533 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
341 picks · 806 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 65%
Hero pool strength67% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
ALIS VENTORUS 38%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 62%
The model gave 62% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracPanda
43% · 160 games55% · 103 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightfortniteMan
51% · 300 games45% · 119 games
PangolierCorrupted
Pangolier
56% · 75 games
PhoenixHellscream
Phoenix
56% · 87 games
Abaddonso bad
Abaddon
54% · 76 games
SnapfireMalr1ne
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct39:49
ALIS VENTORUS 40%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 60%
The model gave 60% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 49:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPanda
54% · 179 games72% · 14 games
VenomancerCorrupted
Venomancer
Sand King
Sand KingfortniteMan
57% · 200 games30% · 6 games
ZeusMalr1ne
Zeus
41% · 263 games
MarsMunkushi~
Mars
22% · 5 games
AlchemistHellscream
Alchemist
40% · 91 game
Ioso bad
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 69%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2