Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
462 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 495 bans
Bane
437 picks · 264 bans
Sand King
422 picks · 555 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 420 bans
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 606 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 807 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:38
YNT 34%11Monkeyz 66%
The model gave 66% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 48:06.
Game 2prediction correct15:40
YNT 34%11Monkeyz 66%
The model gave 66% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 33:42.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 66%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2