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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.

Team Bald Reborn

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 9 games
22%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Rajjix · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gorgc · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
bengan · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 637 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 493 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
436 picks · 264 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
422 picks · 554 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 604 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 420 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 531 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 804 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:27
MooN team 54%Team Bald Reborn 46%
The model gave 54% on MooN team — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 47:28.
Game 2prediction correct39:24
MooN team 54%Team Bald Reborn 46%
The model gave 54% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 44:03.
Game 3prediction missed7:19
MooN team 54%Team Bald Reborn 46%
The model gave 54% on MooN team — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 21:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 54%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3