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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5win 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Astini+5

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
DM · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
DM · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
TA2000 · 1 game
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Daze · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gothic- · 14 games
14%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Gothic- · 13 games
31%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
onLiTaL · 13 games
15%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 12 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 11 games
9%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 10 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
599 picks · 813 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 556 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 395 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 296 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 668 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 592 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 518 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 15%
Hero pool strength61% Astini+5
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Astini+5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:18
Astini+5 76%Natus Vincere Junior 24%
The model gave 76% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 1:03:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
LargoDM
56% · 155 games46% · 134 games
SvenonLiTaL
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainTA2000
47% · 401 game46% · 408 games
Puckgbc
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
53% · 482 games49% · 294 games
Batriderkrol9ash
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
55% · 437 games48% · 388 games
JakiroHyugadoto
Jakiro
Oracle
OracleSoNNeikO
51% · 88 games49% · 339 games
TuskGothic-
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct27:23
Astini+5 74%Natus Vincere Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
48% · 192 games48% · 135 games
KezonLiTaL
Kez
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
51% · 306 games57% · 119 games
Largokrol9ash
Largo
Batrider
BatriderDM
54% · 236 games48% · 549 games
Tinygbc
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
47% · 193 games50% · 449 games
RingmasterHyugadoto
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskDaze
50% · 472 games47% · 147 games
Skywrath MageGothic-
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteAstini+5 · 87%
Series resultAstini+5 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2