Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WWWarm Wine Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Banesignature
QYQX · 8 games
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Dark Willow
QYQX · 5 games
Mirana
Dogf1ghts · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Dogf1ghts · 5 games
Warm Wine Cut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
463 picks · 494 bans
Bane
439 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
422 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 602 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 420 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Warm Wine Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Warm Wine Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteWarm Wine Cut · 58%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:0
Series predictionmissed