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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Magnusloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5ManMidas

No games played over 6 months.

Team Magnus

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 9 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 7 games
43%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 6 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mark · 6 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 5 games
40%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Sakata Gintoki · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chen · 4 games
25%
Weaver
Weaver
Chen · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 642 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
464 picks · 495 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
442 picks · 267 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
423 picks · 554 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 606 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 420 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 810 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 56%
Series result5ManMidas 2:0
Series predictionmissed