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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 20 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 15 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 12 games
58%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 28 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 23 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
28%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 17 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
31%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Wein · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
599 picks · 811 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 556 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 395 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 295 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1026 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 666 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 591 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 517 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
Power Rangers 65%AVULUS 35%
The model gave 65% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
54% · 183 games49% · 405 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
62% · 142 games44% · 119 games
WeaverDarkLord^
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderAlberkaaa
51% · 339 games48% · 229 games
BristlebackPalantimos
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonImmersion
55% · 370 games42% · 422 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
48% · 307 games48% · 166 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Power Rangers 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Keznesfeer
47% · 150 games48% · 295 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
53% · 125 games51% · 192 games
Shadow FiendDarkLord^
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
52% · 172 games56% · 115 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Tiny
TinyImmersion
48% · 435 games45% · 314 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
48% · 230 games51% · 196 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 70%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2