Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportsloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Jakirosignature
Sonic · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shoe · 2 games
Dawnbreaker
Shoe · 2 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Sonic · 2 games
Grimstroke
Shoe · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
FrancisLee · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
464 picks · 495 bans
Bane
442 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
423 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 606 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 420 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 810 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 60%
Series resultLucky Bird 1:2
Series predictionmissed