Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
466 picks · 496 bans
Bane
441 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
423 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 606 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 535 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
KBU.US 54%X3 46%
The model gave 54% on KBU.US — the game was taken by X3 in 21:04.
Game 2prediction missed22:33
KBU.US 54%X3 46%
The model gave 54% on KBU.US — the game was taken by X3 in 29:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 54%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2