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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 501 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 642 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 270 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
422 picks · 552 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
358 picks · 606 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 416 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
351 picks · 815 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 534 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:23
YNT 29%Rune Eaters 71%
The model gave 71% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 36:36.
Game 2prediction correct11:25
YNT 29%Rune Eaters 71%
The model gave 71% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 71%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2