Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
11Monkeyzwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
467 picks · 501 bans
Mars
465 picks · 643 bans
Bane
438 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 603 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:33
MooN team 56%11Monkeyz 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 46:13.
Game 2prediction missed24:37
MooN team 56%11Monkeyz 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 38:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 56%
Series result11Monkeyz 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2