KOBOLDS vs Summit Gaming — prediction DPC2S—Ю 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO1

result vs prediction

KOBOLDSloss 0:1

series probability

56%44%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Summit Gamingwin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KOBOLDS

No games played over 6 months.

Summit Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

470 picks · 504 bans

50%

Mars

468 picks · 645 bans

48%

Bane

441 picks · 270 bans

56%

Sand King

421 picks · 554 bans

53%

Storm Spirit

356 picks · 605 bans

55%

Dragon Knight

353 picks · 413 bans

52%

Death Prophet

352 picks · 815 bans

54%

Pangolier

352 picks · 537 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% KOBOLDS

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total56% KOBOLDS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed25:38

KOBOLDS 53%Summit Gaming 47%

The model gave 53% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 38:30.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo