Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionPPPoison Posseloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BLBuzz Lightyearwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Poison Posse
Chaos Knightoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 3 games
Buzz Lightyear
Bloodseekeroften banned
PLOV · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 646 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 504 bans
Bane
441 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 601 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 816 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Buzz Lightyear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Poison Posse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Poison Posse 54%Buzz Lightyear 46%
The model gave 54% on Poison Posse — the game was taken by Buzz Lightyear.
Model check result
Model favoritePoison Posse · 54%
Series resultBuzz Lightyear 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1