Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
467 picks · 503 bans
Bane
441 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
422 picks · 553 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 601 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 409 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 537 bans
Death Prophet
351 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:19
Lava 55%South Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Lava — the game was taken by South Team in 36:05.
Game 2prediction missed3:18
Lava 55%South Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Lava — the game was taken by South Team in 24:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 55%
Series resultSouth Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2