BTS Pro Series Season 11. Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OOsmiumloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
Bane
Bloody Nine · 9 games
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 7 games
Osmium
Bane
Mjz · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Iooften banned
sl4d1n- · 1 game
Juggernaut
Mnz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 503 bans
Bane
440 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
422 picks · 553 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 599 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 407 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 536 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% Osmium
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
Team DogChamp 51%Osmium 49%
The model gave 51% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaStoneBank
Templar AssassinMnz
TimbersawSpeeed
Miranasl4d1n-
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
Ogre MagiMjz
TinyRyoya
BaneBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct36:31
Team DogChamp 52%Osmium 48%
The model gave 52% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
Chaos KnightMnz
BloodseekerStoneBank
Rubicksl4d1n-
TinyRyoya
UndyingMjz
Winter Wyvernyarintheslayer
BaneBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 56%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2