Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Stratyk Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Queen of Painoften banned
Mark · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 6 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 5 games
Spirit Breaker
Sakata Gintoki · 5 games
Weaver
Chen · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Jack · 3 games
Stratyk Gaming
Chaos Knightoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 499 bans
Bane
440 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 532 bans
Storm Spirit
353 picks · 594 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 814 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Stratyk Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:49
Team Magnus 52%Stratyk Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 57:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerJack
Phantom AssassinCarJua
Ember SpiritMark
Skywrath MageEzekiel
Tinytxhyoo1
AbaddonChen
Game 2prediction missed22:26
Team Magnus 50%Stratyk Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkJack
LifestealerCarJua
Ember SpiritMark
WeaverEzekiel
Phoenixtxhyoo1
GrimstrokeChen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 54%
Series resultStratyk Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2